The Math That Kept Me Applying

General  · 

I got laid off in 2024, and job searching was rough. This math kept me going.

One of the things that weirdly kept me motivated was…literally math and probability. It’s a weird time in the industry right now, and I have multiple friends that are job searching, so I figured I would type this up. And note: this probability math can apply to anything you want to try, not just job searching.

Here’s the math:

Say, just for the sake of a pessimistic example, that every job application has a 1% chance of turning into a job.

A 1% chance sounds terrible. Why even bother?

But that’s the probability of one attempt.

If:

then the probability of getting at least one yes is:

Probability of getting at least one yes, where p is the probability of getting hired from one application and n is the number of applications.

For our example, p = 0.01, so:

1 - (1 - 0.01)^n

or:

1 - (0.99)^n

And this is where it gets interesting.

Probability examples for 2, 10, 100, and 500 applications assuming a 1% chance per application.

With 2 attempts, you’re at about 1.99%.

I know, not much better. But…suppose we throw in more attempts.

With 10, 9.56%.

With 100, 63.40%.

With 500, 99.34%.

Hiring does not actually work like a perfectly controlled probability experiment. Every application is different. Your resume improves. Your interviewing improves. Referrals change the odds. Some jobs are a much better fit than others. Economic conditions change. And no number of applications can mathematically guarantee you a job.

But if you keep trying, regardless of what you’re trying to do, even if your chance of success is 1%. If you keep trying, you’ll eventually get what you want.